A few weeks ago, I took my family on vacation to Tennessee. The kids had an absolute blast at Dollywood, and I quickly found myself spending most of my time on roller coasters.
As we climbed the first big hill on one ride, I watched the anticipation build in my kids' faces. The excitement, the fear, the uncertainty of how high this hill would go and what comes next.
Tick.
Tick.
Tick.
The climb is slow and steady. Every click takes you a little higher. The view gets a little better. And eventually everyone on board starts to believe the ride might just keep going up forever.
It's a fitting metaphor for today's tech boom 2.0.
As I write this in June of 2026, what a climb it has been.
Artificial intelligence continues advancing at a breathtaking pace.We’re now hearing about blasting datacenters into orbit or hiding them under the sea. Robots are moving from demonstration videos into warehouses and factories. Quantum computing is making progress. Some of the most valuable private companies in the world are preparing to enter public markets.
Tick.
Tick.
Tick.
The future seems to arrive faster every month.
But anyone who's ever ridden a roller coaster knows something important:
The climb doesn't last forever.
That doesn't mean the ride is over.
It simply means the next part of the journey looks different.
Before going any further, let's be clear about something. We are not predicting a crash. We are not suddenly bearish on technology. In fact, quite the opposite.
We believe artificial intelligence may prove to be one of the most transformative technologies in human history—alongside electricity, the automobile, and the internet. We are genuine believers in the long-term potential.
But a technological revolution and a stock market rally are not the same thing.
That's an important distinction.
The technology can be completely real—even world-changing—while stock prices become overly optimistic in the short run. History has shown us that over and over again.
As retirement planners, our jobisn't to chase every hot investment. Our job is to help clients participate in long-term opportunities while avoiding unnecessary risks along the way.
That's one reason we've trimmed portions of our AI exposure over the past year.
Not because we've turned negative.
Not because the story is over.
But because no investment goes straight up forever, and sometimes the most disciplined thing an investor can do is harvest a few gains after a strong run.
Think of it like tending a garden. When the tomatoes are ripe, you pick some. You don't tear out the plant, but you don't leave every tomato on the vine hoping it grows forever, either.
Taking profits isn't pessimism.
It's discipline.
And discipline is often what separates successful long-term investors from everyone else.
The Biggest IPO Wave in Decades
One development we're watching closely is the growing wave of technology IPOs.
SpaceX has now entered the public markets. Anthropic appears to be moving in that direction. OpenAI is widely expected to follow.
These aren't ordinary companies. They represent the most valuable private businesses ever created.
What'sdifferent this time, however, is that much of the wealth creation has already occurred before public investors get a chance to participate.
When companies like Microsoft, Amazon, Apple, and Google went public, investors still had decades of growth ahead of them. Today's technology leaders have often remained private for much longer, allowing founders, venture capital firms, institutions, and early employees to capture a substantial portion of the gains before public investors ever have an opportunity to buy shares.
That doesn't mean these companies won't continue to grow. Many likely will.
But it does mean investors should be careful about assuming that every new IPO will follow the same path as the great technology winners of the past.
The truth is nobody knows exactly how markets will absorb offerings of this size, what the unlocks will look like, and how ETFs will react to selling other big tech companies to make room for the new entrants.
What we do know is that periods of uncertainty often create volatility.
And volatility often creates opportunity.
The Real Boom May Still Be Ahead of Us
Here's the part that may surprise you.
I don't believe the real AI boom is happening right now. I know that seems crazy to say as any company in the entire semiconductor process looks like it left orbit on a SpaceX rocket.
But the real boom begins when artificial intelligence becomes boring.
Think about electricity.
The biggest opportunity wasn't when electricity was a novelty that attracted crowds to world's fairs. The biggest transformation occurred when electricity disappeared into the walls and became part of everyday life.
AI is likely headed down a similar path.
The real boom arrives when businesses use it routinely to reduce costs and improve productivity. When doctors use it to identify diseases earlier. When robots become commonplace. When AI assistants become as ordinary as email.
In other words, the real boom begins when nobody feels the need to talk about it anymore.
That's when technology truly changes the world.
History offers an important lesson here.
The internet changed everything.
Most internet stocks didn't.
Railroads transformed America.
Many railroad investors lost fortunes.
The automobile reshaped society.
Thousands of car companies disappeared.
The pattern repeats itself again and again.
The technology won. Many investorsstill lost.
Identifyingan important technology is only the first step. The much harder challenge is identifying which companies will ultimately benefit—and what price is reasonable to pay for them.
That's where investment success is often determined.
There's another reason we've been trimming some of our technology exposure.
Success creates concentration.
When one area of the market performs exceptionally well, portfolios can gradually become more dependent on a small number of companies than investors realize.
A balanced portfolio has a way of becoming unbalanced when one sector dramatically outperforms everything else.
Meanwhile, away from the headlines, there are still many attractive businesses trading at reasonable valuations.
Some help companies implement AI. Some provide the infrastructure needed to support it. Others are modernizing the power grids, communication networks, and financial systems that will be required to support the next generation of technology.
It's an old lesson.
During a gold rush, most people focus on the miners.
Often, the better businesses are the ones selling picks, shovels, and blue jeans.
Final Thoughts
The challenge today isn't figuring out whether artificial intelligence matters.
We think that's obvious.
The challenge is participating in the opportunity without allowing enthusiasm to overwhelm discipline.
That's where we remain focused.
We continue to believe technology will create tremendous opportunities in the years ahead. We also believe periods of excitement are often followed by periods of volatility. That's simply how markets work.
The biggest risk isn't missing the next hot AI stock.
The biggest risk is becoming so concentrated in today's winners that you lose the flexibility to take advantage of tomorrow's opportunities.
Sowe'll continue doing what we've always done: managing risk, looking for value, and helping clients participate in long-term growth without taking more risk than necessary.
The climb may continue for quite some time.
But eventually the track bends.
It always does.
Our job is to make sure you're prepared when it does.
Tick.
Tick.
Boom.
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Disclosures
This material has been prepared for informational purposes only and should not be construed as a solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, either transactions in securities or the rendering of personalized investment advice. This material is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for tax, legal, investment, accounting, or other financial advice. You should consult your own tax, legal, financial, and accounting advisors before engaging in any transaction. Asset allocation and diversification do not guarantee a profit or protect against a loss. All references to potential future developments or outcomes are strictly the views and opinions of Richard W. Paul & Associates and in no way promise, guarantee, or seek to predict with any certainty what may or may not occur in various economies and investment markets. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance.