Blog
What If This Is A Recession?
The economic data overwhelmingly suggest that the economy is growing, but what if it’s all wrong and we’re at the precipice of the next recession. How bad could it get this time, and what can investors do today to prepare?
Read MoreIs This A Bear Market?
The carnage this year has been relentless, and the S&P 500 is flirting with bear market territory. What can history tell us about the severity of bear markets, and if the index continues to fall, what should investors do next?
Read MoreTake Two And Call In The Morning
While recent volatility is causing headaches for some investors, others argue it feels more like being the victim in a low-budget horror flick. What can investors do to help alleviate some of the pain?
Read MoreIs The Economy OK?
Economists’ track record for forecasting the direction of the U.S. economy have historically been less than stellar. Are their models wrong, and if so, is economic forecasting a fool’s errand?
Read MoreShow All
Let’s Take A Breather
We can now close the books on the first quarter of the New Year, and it was one of the more challenging three months in recent history. So, let’s step away from the news flow for a few minutes and look at twenty-two fun facts for 2022.
Read MoreAn Inverted What?
One of the most closely watched recession indicators triggered this week, and the media’s coverage has likely just begun. But how reliable is it, and how long do we have until we need to batten down the hatches?
Read MoreWhat is Amazon Thinking?
Rising stock prices can create challenges for companies and investors. To alleviate these high-class problems, boardrooms often authorize a stock split. What exactly is a stock split, and how does it work.
Read MoreIt’s Not All Bad.
The list of headwinds facing the U.S. economy right now feels longer than normal. But are any of these stronger than the tailwinds pushing the economy forward, and if so, could they last longer?
Read MoreWhy Not Wait Until It All Calms Down?
Inflation, rising interest rates, and one of the worst geopolitical crises since World War II has created a perfect storm for volatility in the stock market. Is there some merit to getting out now and waiting for the volatility to subside?
Read MoreCould This Ignite World War III?
Russia invaded Ukraine this week and sent shockwaves through global financial markets. Could this be the beginning of something bigger, and if so, should investors shift their strategy before it’s too late?
Read MoreWhat’s Going On Right Now?
I was interviewed this week to talk markets and discuss many of the issues and concerns heard from investors. Tough questions were asked, and as usual, most of them weren’t easy to answer.
Read MoreWe Are Here To Help
When market volatility spikes, investors yearn for the safety and comfort of cash. However, it’s important to always consider who is on the other side of a trade and why they are so willing to make your pain go away.
Read MoreHow Bad Could It Get?
The stock market has had a rough start to the year, and after the stellar performance in 2021, investors appear worried that volatility is here to stay. If so, how bad could it get, and does it make sense to get out now?
Read MoreWill Rising Rates Cause Stocks to Crash?
Now that we are months away from the first Fed rate hike in years, some investors fear that rising interest rates will ignite another recession. Is this warranted, and if so, how much time do we have before things get bad?
Read MoreHow Will The Market Do This Year?
It’s that time of year when investors anxiously await predictions from the brightest minds on Wall Street. What can we learn from this prestigious group, and will they bring good fortune?
Read MoreThe Church of Gold
Inflation is too much money chasing too few goods, and there’s a goldilocks level where just the right amount is needed for a growing economy. But when inflation spikes, investors, politicians, and most...
Read MoreWill He Come This Year?
It’s that time of year when investors hope that Santa Claus will bring them a year-end rally. Given the meteoric rise in the S&P 500 this year, is there more room to run before the year closes out?
Read MoreWhy Not Sit This One Out?
The stock market has been relatively calm for most of 2021, but this could be coming to an end. Fears over Omicron and inflation appear to be spooking investors for the first time in months. Is it time to take a break?
Read MoreLet's Get Real
The U.S. economy is on fire, yet all investors and the media seem to want to talk about these days is inflation. Is this risk real, and if so, what can we do to protect and prosper while prices keep rising higher?
Read MoreHow It All Began
My family moved around a lot when I was young, but no matter where we were living, we made the pilgrimage to Rockford, Illinois each year to visit our extended family. One of my fondest memories was waking up at the crack of dawn on...
Read MoreIt’s A Jungle Out There
Natural selection drives economies and markets as it does the wild, and it’s unlikely this will ever change. But how we perceive the harsh cruelties within each can determine whether we see risk or opportunity.
Read MoreIs It Happening Again?
On October 19th 1987, the S&P 500 dropped over 20%. Given the eerily similar parallel between the stock market’s climb this year and the price action leading into Black Monday, is history about to repeat itself?
Read MoreLook Under The Hood Before Buying
The first ever bitcoin Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) is finally here, and initial demand has been off the charts. However, it’s unclear how many early adopters of this ETF realize that they don’t actually own bitcoin.
Read MoreQuarter In Review
The economy continued to print numbers in the third quarter that during any other time in history could be mistaken for typos. On a relative basis, we haven’t seen growth like this since post World War II. But high growth rates...
Read MoreWill Congress Raise The Roof?
The Treasury Department is predicting the government will run out of cash in less than two weeks unless the debt ceiling is raised. If not, the U.S. could default on its debt, and if so, what could happen next?
Read MoreThe Worst of The Worst
The market’s response to crisis has been surprisingly favorable over the last three decades, but participating along the way has required much more than simply “staying the course.”
Read MoreIs This A Lehman Moment?
One of China’s largest property developers is on the brink of collapse, and it’s conjuring memories of the days before Lehman Brothers failed. Could this ignite yet another debt-fueled global financial crisis?
Read MoreOld Financial Wives’ Tales
There appear to be more financial and investing myths than there are truths. Dispelling all of them could take a lifetime, so let’s just focus on a few common ones that can get knocked out quickly. Never invest in all-time highs....
Read MoreWords To Live By
Investing affords the opportunity to learn something new every day. Here are ten lessons that have helped guide my investment philosophy and decision-making process over the years.
Read MoreBreaking Up Is Hard To Do
One of the most coveted Wall Street darlings in history emerged in the 1990s and rose to meteoric heights. This firm had a reputation for hiring the best talent, outmaneuvering competition, and making shareholders a lot of money....
Read MoreDon’t Bring A Knife To A Gunfight
Charles Darwin said that it is not the strongest of the species that survives, nor the most intelligent, but the one most responsive to change. It’s time investors consider new strategies to navigate the financial jungle.
Read MoreWhy Are They So Important?
The Federal Reserve Bank is not short on critics, and the controversy surrounding them often feels comparable to a daytime soap opera. What does the Fed do, and why does the world care so much?
Read MoreWhat’s Your Type?
Growth and value investors are often as far apart philosophically as Democrats and Republicans. Why so much controversy, and are the chances of bipartisanship any better in the stock market than in D.C.?
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Swinging For The Fences
J.P. Morgan conducted an analysis to determine the frequency of catastrophic losses. How can investors protect against this risk and better position themselves to hit more home runs?
Read MoreDow Falls More Than 700 Points!!!
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a popular stock index used to track the broader U.S. equity market. It fell over 700 points last Monday for its worst day since October, which compelled the media to do what they do.
Read MoreHalftime Report
Markets calmed down somewhat during the second quarter, but that doesn’t imply smooth sailing from here. If anything, less drama has opened the door to fiery debates on the direction of the economy and financial markets. The...
Read MoreWhat's the Catch?
Back in October 2019, Charles Schwab followed Robinhood and eliminated trading commissions. There are no free lunches in this business, so how are discount brokers like Schwab making money if what they broker is now free?
Read MoreShould You Invest With Your Feet?
The growth in “ethical” investing has taken off, and there is little evidence that this trend will slow down anytime soon. But how well does it work, and what risks come along with these strategies?
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Do You Have What It Takes?
One of the best features of financial markets is the diversity in which participants can succeed. And while there is much debate over which strategy works the best, a better approach is to determine which works the best for you....
Read MoreShould We Believe?
Blaise Pascal was a brilliant seventeenth century mathematician and philosopher. He was also a devout Catholic and devised a compelling argument for why one should believe in God. His case was predicated on the notion that while it's...
Read MoreDon't Blow Up
There’s a long list of investment strategies and products that may look good on paper but can create significant risk. Making matters worse, they are accessible to nearly anyone with a brokerage account.
Read MoreIf He Can’t Do It, Neither Can We
Warren Buffett has built unimaginable wealth by following a strategy predicated on patience, discipline, and compounding. What can we learn from his success to help get us closer to our financial goals?
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How Will We Pay It All Back?
While the economy appears to be recovering and the government is preparing to spend at levels unseen since post World War II, the elephant in the room must be addressed. How will we ever pay back all this debt, and if so, when?
Read MoreThe World Is Changing
Let’s examine five trends developing right now that are inextricably linked and could provide clues into how the world will look in the coming years. None of these can match the excitement of meme stocks or over-levered hedge...
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Is This Another Big Short?
The housing market is on fire and stoking fears of another bubble. What is causing this boom, and how similar is today to what ultimately led the U.S. into one of the worst recessions in history?
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Giving Back
Dividends have played a significant role in equity returns over the past 50 years. Given the outperformance of dividend-paying stock versus those that do not, should investors solely focus on portfolios that emphasize dividends?
Read MoreQuarter In Review
There was no shortage of drama during the first quarter of 2021. There are several trends developing in the undercurrents of financial markets that must be watched very closely. It's imperative to keep a mindful eye on what lurks beneath.
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Who I Read
The Internet and regulation democratized access to information, but this has arguably created bigger problems for investors. How do we consume all of it, can we trust who’s creating it, and how can it make us better informed?
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Should We Rent Instead?
Robert Shiller is an economist at Yale University and is regarded as a leading expert on housing. His analysis concludes that real estate generally keeps pace with inflation but seldom offers any return above1. Returns look even less...
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Is Disco Coming Back?
Given the unprecedented monetary and fiscal response over the last year, many pundits are prophesizing a return to 1970s style inflation. Could this really happen, and if so, how should investors prepare their portfolios?
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Do As I Say, Not As I Did
Here are ten investing lessons that I’ve had to learn the hard way during my career. Most of these were the direct result of making stupid mistakes or relying too heavily on formulas rather than intuition. Hopefully these will...
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When Every Instinct Is Wrong
Panic selling is almost always a bad idea, but staying invested through turbulent times is easier said than done. Let’s look to one of the greatest comedic characters of all time for advice on how to handle market volatility.
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High Class Problems
It’s that time of year. Snow is melting, March Madness is approaching, and springtime rains will soon pave the way for May flowers. It’s also when most Americans compile endless paperwork, organize receipts, and meet with...
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Are We Due?
The stock market has had a strong start to the year, but recent all-time highs followed by volatility in closely watched sectors appear to be fueling fears of an imminent correction. Will one happen, and if so, when?
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Reading Below The Obituaries
Meme stocks, cryptocurrencies, and Elon Musk tweets continue to dominate page one headlines. But there are far more important stories and trends developing that are being ignored by the media.
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Meme Stock Mania
Meme stock mania continued this week, and investors don’t appear to be laughing. Could this movement create enough momentum to fuel another dot-com style bubble, and if so, when could it burst?
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When Will This Game Stop?
On January 6th, shares of Signal Advance (ticker: SIGL) closed at $0.60. The next day, Elon Musk tweeted “Use Signal” to his loyal followers, and the stock closed at $3.76 for a jaw dropping gain of 627%. There was just one...
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State of The Markets
Last year will go down as one of the worst ever for economic activity but also as one of the best for markets. These two extremes expose a paradox facing investors that likely isn’t going anywhere anytime soon.
Read MoreWas That A Good Idea?
The decision by large technology companies to ban President Trump and Parler created a firestorm of controversy this week. Could this be the tipping point for Big Tech, and if so, what are the implications for shareholders?
Read MoreShould Investors Fear The Blue Wave?
Joe Biden is going to be the next President of the United States, and it appears that the Democrats will also win both the House and Senate. How will this “blue wave” impact investors, and what can they do to prepare for this sea change?
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Should Investors Go Passive?
Active vs. Passive Active investing attempts to outperform a benchmark or mitigate a risk. For example, a manager aiming to beat the S&P 500 may own a higher percentage of technology stocks than the S&P 500 if her analysis concludes...
Read MoreHow Will The Market Do Next Year?
It’s that time of year when investors anxiously await predictions from the brightest minds on Wall Street. What can we learn from this prestigious group, and will they bring good fortune?
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Should We Celebrate?
The current bull market that began months ago has pushed the Dow Jones Industrial Average to the precipice of cracking 30,000. If it were to cross, it would fly in the face of a tumultuous year that will most likely never be forgotten.
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Is It Time to Buy Bitcoin?
Bitcoin has exploded since March and attracted attention from the media and investors. Adoption continues to grow, and as more support builds for the digital currency, should investors get in now before it’s too late?
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Are Taxes Going Up?
Hurdles Tax policy has taken center stage in the final days before the U.S. presidential election. The polls show Biden with a commanding lead, and many investors fear this will result in higher taxes. However, there are four hurdles...
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The Rise of the Financial Machines
Technology has a long history of disrupting industries by replacing human labor with machines and software, and financial services is not immune. Will the surge in “robo investing” replace traditional advisors one day?
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Solving High-Class Problems
Rising stock prices can create challenges for companies and investors. To alleviate these high-class problems, boardrooms often authorize a stock split. What exactly is a stock split, and how does it work?
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Halftime Report
The uncertainty facing investors has arguably never been higher. While this may be viewed as a harbinger for safety, this is also when opportunity is the most abundant for patient investors with a strong stomach.
Read MoreThe April Paradox
April will go down as one of the worst months ever for economic activity. It will also be remembered as one of the best months for stocks. This paradox has many perplexed. Who could be buying right now with so much uncertainty?
Read MoreAre Stocks Expensive?
Last year was a banner year for U.S. stocks. All sectors within the S&P 500 generated double-digit returns. Now that the stock market continues to reach new highs, is it time to ring the register?
Read MoreWinning the War
Many feel that our country is at war. If we run with this metaphor, then what matters most right now is some sign that we are winning the war. There are two current developments that could turn the tide.
Read MoreHow Is the Market Doing?
When asked how “the market” is doing, the question invariably refers to the performance of the S&P 500 index. However, the stock market and any index that tracks it are rarely appropriate benchmarks for investors.
Read MoreIs This Another 2008?
The surprising level of panic from the coronavirus pandemic is reminiscent of 2008. Is this a warning sign to investors that another financial crisis is on the horizon?
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