Market Predictions for 2026: Hits, Misses, and Reality

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Every new year brings bold market predictions and plenty of confident opinions. But how much of that noise actually matters for your retirement? In this episode, Matt & Steve look back at what forecasters said last year, what really happened, and what’s already being predicted for 2026. And because no prediction show is complete without a little honesty, we wrap things up with a Grumpy Grandpa reminder about risk, reality, and expectations.

Here’s what we discuss in this episode:
🔍 2025 Predictions Review: What forecasters got right, and where they were wrong
📊 Forecast Accuracy Check: Why predictions often miss the mark
🔮 2026 Market Outlook: Big themes and expectations ahead
📉 Volatility & Strategy: How retirees should think about uncertainty

For the latest Grumpy Grandpa short

For Bepin and Mike's State of the Markets

0:00 – Intro
1:08 – Reviewing 2025
3:45 – 2025 & 2026 Predictions
8:16 – Market Volatility and Investment Strategies
11:33 –Grumpy Grandpa Segment

Charts

Percent change is based on each institution’s projection of the price return of the S&P 500 Index which is calculated based on the 2025 year-end S&P 500 Index price level of 6,845.50 at market close on 12/31/2025. Projections as of 12/2025.

Opinions and forward-looking statements expressed are subject to change without notice. The S&P 500 Index is an unmanaged index of 500 companies used to measure large-cap U.S. stock market performance. Index returns do not reflect any fees, expenses, or sales charges. Investors cannot invest directly in an index.

The information presented is not intended to constitute an investment recommendation for, or advice to, any specific person. By providing this information, Richard W. Paul & Associates, LLC is not undertaking to give advice in any fiduciary capacity within the meaning of ERISA, the Internal Revenue Code or any other regulatory framework. Financial professionals are responsible for evaluating investment risks independently and for exercising independent judgment in determining whether investments are appropriate for their clients.

This video is for educational and entertainment purposes only. No statements in this video made shall constitute tax, financial, legal or accounting advice. You should consult your own professionals on any such matters. Investment Advisory Services are offered through Richard W. Paul & Associates, LLC, an SEC registered investment advisor. Insurance Services offered through Midwest Financial Consultants, Inc.

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